Hostile Territory

Welcome to Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. The Patriots will arrive here tomorrow. #WBZ pic.twitter.com/0fYim4TlOd

— STEVE BURTON (@STEVEBURTONWBZ) January 18, 2019

The Patriots beat down of the Los Angeles Chargers last week was something else to watch. The Patriots remain undefeated at home for this season but on the road, it’s another story. The team has been 3-5 on the road (all 5 losses are by non-playoff teams as well). Additionally, the Pats are only 3-4 in playoffs while on the road under Belichick.  Not only is this worrying but it indicates the team has been uncoordinated in away games. Arrowhead Stadium is effectively the worst environment one can walk into.

Arrowhead is arguably the loudest stadium in the NFL, and  throwing the Pats off will be a very likely possibility. However, the team is aware of this and embraces the challenge of a rematch  from Week 6. The Pats won 43-40 at Gillette during the regular season but the advantage the Pats had is now gone. Not only will Bill Belichick need to think hard on how to confront this seemingly unstoppable Chiefs’ offense, they will need to bring A+ coaching that they showed last week.

Can Belichick Handle the Pressure?

"Everybody’s counting on you to do your job."

44 seasons later, pregame nerves are still a weekly occurrence for Coach Belichick: https://t.co/GYCvJ0kPza pic.twitter.com/Hy2JXMg1w5

— New England Patriots (@Patriots) January 18, 2019

It’s tough to understand but the playoffs are the time where the pressure is at it’s highest. Lose one game, and it’s all over. Done. Belichick knows this feeling all too well, it’s the reason why he always approaches each game differently and remains focused. In many ways, being nervous is a natural part of the playoffs.

However, Belichick has been here before. He has seen the highs and lows. And to suggest he has no way to stop Kansas City is ludicrous. If last week’s game against the Chargers proved anything, it’s that talent doesn’t matter. One of Belichick’s greatest quotes still holds value here: “Players win games, coaches lose games.” Coaching is what the Patriots are best known for. Josh McDaniels, Brian Flores, Dante Scarnecchia, Joe Judge, Ivan Fears or Josh Boyer it doesn’t matter where you look, every coach could arguably be considered a head coach in their own right (McDaniels was a previous coach, and Flores is now being considered for the head coach vacancy in Miami)

But at the end of the day, it’s always Belichick. He runs the show and ultimately it’s up to him to figure out some way to contain the most explosive offense in the NFL this year. Like he did in Super Bowl LI against the Atlanta Falcons, who came in with the #1 scoring offense. Or the time the Patriots faced the St. Louis Rams a.k.a The Greatest Show on Turf, in Super Bowl 36. Or the time Belichick was the DC for the New York Giants and had to beat the Buffalo Bills and their K-Gun Offense in Super Bowl 25. It doesn’t matter what offense a team has, Belichick WILL find a way. He has done it many a time.

Embracing The Underdog

After Tom Brady told @tracywolfson in a post-game interview on CBS that "everybody thinks we suck and can't win any games", the underdog theme resonated throughout parts of the Patriots locker room as players looked ahead to the AFC Championship Game. https://t.co/nVpL8onc5w

— Mike Reiss (@MikeReiss) January 13, 2019

Tom Brady has had a down year, or at least for his own standards. He is 41 years old. Well Brady has been listening to the media downplaying his performances this year and how he is on the decline. But Brady embraces the thought of being looked down on. Because it makes victory that much sweeter.

Throughout the last five years, Brady has been seen as an old man trying to play a young man’s game. It’s ironic that the stadium where the narrative originated will be where Brady and the Patriots play for the AFC Championship. In 2014, Brady had quite possibly one of the worst games of his entire career. In Kansas City, in week 4, the Patriots played the Chiefs and the stadium was the highest recorded game in the NFL history. It threw the Pats off, and it resulted in a 41-13 thrashing by the Chiefs. Brady was 14-23 passing, 159 yards, a TD and 2 INTS. It was so bad that they put Jimmy Garoppolo in to see what he could do (which was get a TD).

The reality is, that game caused the media to run with the narrative that Brady’s time was over. And it couldn’t have been any further from the truth. Brady and the Patriots would win the Super Bowl in 2014 against the Seattle Seahawks led by Russell Wilson and the Legion of Boom defense. The facts: when you doubt the Patriots and think they are out, they fool you and make you pay for it.

Chiefs Are Without Kareem Hunt

ESPN Report Confirms Kareem Hunt's Accuser Called Him N*gger & Struck Him During Altercation at Hotel; Incident Starts When Hunt Became Concern When He Found Out The Women Were Underage Drinking (Video) https://t.co/H1RuX2dZXA pic.twitter.com/cL6w72K555

— Robert Littal (@BSO) December 7, 2018

For those who forgot, on November 30th, 2018, Chiefs Running Back Kareem Hunt, was caught on camera having an altercation with several women at a hotel from back in February. This resulted in Hunt being placed on the Commissioner’s exempt list and was subsequently released by the team.

Hunt really messed up by hurting these women (they were both underage) but that’s a separate matter. Right now, the Chiefs don’t have Hunt anymore. Instead, former undrafted free agent and Miami Dolphin, Damien Williams is the starter. While Williams is a definite downgrade from Hunt, he is has been productive for the Chiefs.

Hunt was a dynamic playmaker who could change the course of the game, while Williams is a good ground-and-pound type of player. He versatile in both the running and passing game, but he doesn’t have the presence or athleticism that Hunt had. It’s similar to James Conner replacing LeVeon Bell this season for the Steelers. While one if still very productive in the other’s place, it’s mainly because of the offensive line.

Without Hunt, the Patriots will likely focus on shutting down the run game as fast as possible. It’s easier said than done as the Chief’s offensive line has been Top 10 this season. With QB Patrick Mahomes, he makes it easier to protect with having great pocket awareness and mobility to move the ball. But Williams should be someone whom the Patriots are more familiar with so it should provide some good insight.

Can An Upset Be Possible?

On January 20, sky-watchers across the Americas will see the moon turn a rusty shade of red during a total lunar eclipse—also known as a super blood wolf moon https://t.co/lo9cWOagLx

— National Geographic (@NatGeo) January 18, 2019

This game will be played under a Super Blood Wolf Moon (essentially a massive lunar eclipse) on Sunday night during the game. If that’s not some kind of omen then I don’t know what is. But even if it spells bad karma, the Patriots still have a job to do. The Chiefs this year are the team to beat. MVP Patrick Mahomes will be the hardest to cover, especially his connection with receiver Tyreek Hill and TE Travis Kelce. But if anybody can figure out a way to come out a winner, it’s the Pats.

Nobody will give the team any credit because of the terrible record on the road. But it’s why teams play to win games. So they can get home field advantage in the playoffs. The Patriots have to makeup for it by playing the hardest in Kansas City. While it’s tough to give an accurate prediction, the thought here is that the Patriots, if they come into Arrowhead, pull out a strong start and score within the first half, they can compete. The stadium will be absolutely blasting with noise, which will mess up communication. But it’s likely they will expect this and the only way to silence the noise, score on their secondary. The Chiefs lead the league in sacks this season but also have one of the worst secondaries this season (that could change with safety Eric Berry making his return in this game).

Verdict

The only for the Patriots to have a chance is to establish a strong presence. The team has the best defense going into this week but that will mean little if they can’t get after Mahomes before he escapes the pocket. The plan should be to take away each of Mahomes weapons so it forces him to rely purely on himself. A first year starter having to carry his whole team on his shoulders in an championship game?  in cold climate will no doubt yield favorable results.

I will stick with the Patriots purely because I don’t bet against Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. The only thing that has done is burn people (and whoever bet on the Chargers last week). Either way, the Patriots should cover the spread (-3 in favor of the Chiefs) and Patriots should win in a close shoot out game, 30-28. The team was doubted by many against a far more talented Chargers team, who beat the Chiefs at home in December. Trying to think the PAts don’t have a chance now is just being foolish.

The AFC Championship game will be airing on Sunday, Jan. 20th on CBS at 6:40 PM.