Can the Revolution Revive their 2014 Magic?
With only 10 games to play, the future looks bleak in New England. The Revolution currently sit seven points beneath the red line and behind the sixth-place Montreal Impact after 24 games played each. Equally worrisome is the six points they trail behind seventh-place Atlanta United FC and their one game in hand.
With only one Western Conference match left on the docket, the Revs do have an opportunity for some six-point swings. And an under-performing Revolution team did turn a summer swoon into a barnstorming run to the MLS Cup final not long ago. Could they do it again?
Comparing 2014 & 2017
Both squads found themselves in a similar place with 10 games remaining. Both were below the red line. Both were playing like a whole less than the sum of their parts. Both had a pretty similar set of results overall- 30 points in 2014 with a negative-five goal differential, compared to the 29 points and negative-one goal differential today.
The 2014 Revolution picked up a staggering 25 of the final 30 points up for grabs (going 8-1-1) and cruised to second place in the Eastern Conference- a comfortable 13 points above the red line. Their form carried them through the playoffs past D.C. United and the New York Red Bulls until LA Galaxy denied the Revolution an MLS Cup Final victory for the third time.
So why not a cup run again in 2017? A few of the pieces are in place already. Summer drought? Check. Recent return to form? Taken three wins from their last five matches. Summer DP signing? A DP and a TAM-level signing! Hey, maybe it’s possible! Even the pesky Galaxy are out of the picture this time around!
Why it’s… not possible
First of all, they have more ground to make up. In 2014 the Revs were outside looking in at a playoff spot, but just barely. Take a look-
They sat only one point under the red line set by the New York Red Bulls after 24 games a piece. The competition around them wasn’t much to shout about either. The Philadelphia Union weren’t terrible in 2014, but none of those squads on the bottom four deserved a playoff spot.
The Eastern Conference is better in 2017. The East has come up 41-29-25 against Western opponents so far this year. At this point in 2014, the East was a less impressive 21-33-25. It will take more to make the playoffs in the East in 2017. I wouldn’t count on much help from the other side of the country either.
The Revs themselves face stiffer competition as well. Their remaining opponents currently average 1.50 points per game, (more than the Revolution themselves at 1.21). Compare this to the average of their last 10 opponents in 2014 at 1.24 points per game. Measured by this season’s averages- that’s the difference between a 10-match run against a FC Dallas (1.5) or Montreal Impact (1.5), instead of an Orlando City (1.24), San Jose Earthquakes (1.27) or Real Salt Lake (1.19).
Jermaine Jones isn’t walking through that door. Claude Dielna looked the part on Sunday and Krisztian Nemeth is an excellent player, but I don’t anticipate these new signings providing the momentum or leadership Jones did in the second half of 2014. His immediate impact has only rarely been replicated by a summer signing in MLS (see: Nico Lodeiro, 2016).
This year’s squad has a steeper hill to climb in a tougher conference against more considerable competition with less impactful reinforcements. A run to the top of the table and deep into the playoffs is likely not in the cards. That said, a playoff appearance isn’t out of the question just yet.
So you’re saying there’s a chance?
Blowing another late lead and failing to win yet again against NYC FC on the weekend doesn’t fill anyone with optimism. Yet, Dielna may solve their problems at center back. Teal Bunbury continues to score, Kei Kamara has finally started to look the part in recent weeks and a proven attacker in Nemeth should be ready to contribute soon. Key players Lee Nguyen, Xavier Kouassi and Diego Fagundez are expected back in the squad after injury scares in the Bronx. The Revolution next face a woeful DC United side on short rest with an opportunity to build confidence.
Even so I would temper expectations. I don’t know exactly how, where or when Nemeth fits in, no one in the league knows what’s going on at left back for New England and losing Kelyn Rowe for 6-8 weeks is massive.
There are reasons for concern and glimmers of optimism aplenty, but one thing is certain- three points on Saturday make the Revs playoffs hopes look a whole lot brighter.